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Propane inventories BUILT 800,000/bbls for the week ending February 27th, 2026. While a build in February is not unprecedented, as I found at least two instances in the last decade, the 800,000/bbl build might be the largest I have seen in February.
As I wrote last week, the highest inventory levels we have seen at the end of a winter season, before they began building again, were 62.23M/bbls in 2016. Given the warmth we are seeing across much of the country this week, as well as in the two-week forecast, it seems likely that our inventory low for this year will be much higher than that previous 'high-low'.
Propane's value to crude oil (inset image) for Conway is in the low 37% range right now, having dipped below that in February, the lowest level for that benchmark since the summer of 2024. TET values are higher, as they are more closely tracking rising crude oil prices due to an ever-growing war premium in the price of WTI.
