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Propane inventories built just 400,000/bbls for the week ending May 15, 2026.
Propane production eclipsed the 3M/bpd mark for the second week in a row, while propane exports were right at 2M/bpd last week and have been at or over that level for the past five weeks.
While propane inventories are still very high (we have nearly 30M/bbls additional 'Propane Ready to Use' on hand right now than we did the same week last year), propane exports should remain strong. However, propane production is also in a position to remain at full output. I am less confident that this inventory season will produce an all-time high than I was before the war in Iran, but that could still be in the cards.
Regardless, propane supply-and-demand fundamentals remain bearish, but the crude outlook is getting more bullish by the day. Bullish seems like such an insignificant term to use when we are looking at the loss of so much supply. This week, the EIA reported that crude inventories dropped by nearly 18M bbls last week, the largest weekly drawdown in history. PREDICTION: The next few weeks will also be among the largest weekly drawdowns of crude in history.
Propane values are now 35% higher than they were at TET back on 2/27, the day before hostilities began in Iran, while Conway is over 26% higher.
The January through February average price of WTI crude was $62.34/bbl, while the average closing price of crude oil since the beginning of March is $96.10/bbl, or an increase of 54%.
Conway propane is below 30% the value of WTI as of end of trading yesterday, so I guess it could be worse?