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Propane inventories drew 1.3M/bbls for the week ending May 1st, a second consecutive week of drawdowns during the time of year where we expect to see builds.
Overall inventory levels now stand at 77.6M/bbls, which is still the high-water mark all-time for this week of the year, ahead of this week in 2015 when inventories were reported at 74.2M/bbls. We are also still nearly 30M/bbls above where we were at this time last year.
However, the rate of inventory build has been very slow this year, and we are, in fact, only 600,000 bbls ahead of where we were on April 3rd. We hit 80M/bbls for the week ending 4/17/26, but have had back-to-back weeks of draws.
The time frame from the middle of April to the first week of May has not traditionally been a strong build period, with some years adding only a million or two gallons to totals during that time, but most years have seen a build of at least three to four million barrels this time of year. So this will be worth monitoring.
Production remains very strong at 2.942M/bpd, which is the seventh-largest weekly total ever reported. However, the top six have been reported in the six weeks directly preceding this week, and the ninth-highest weekly total ever reported was on 3/13/26, less than two months ago.
So we are living through the highest propane production era on record, and it's showing no signs of stopping. If exports do not keep up, or if an inventory correction takes place in the coming weeks, I remain of the opinion that we will set a new inventory high come the fall.
Exports were strong this week, checking in at 2.028M/bpd, the 32nd week all-time where production has topped the 2M/bpd mark, but off from the record high of 2.335M/bpd set in April of 2024.
As we often say, there are finite limits to propane exports on two fronts. The first is the availability at the loading dock, and the second is the number of ships that can transport propane and whether they split loads with other hydrocarbons.
Given the war in Iran and the decreased flows of products through the Straight of Hormuz, there is a massive appetite for American-sourced propane for export. Shipping logisticians across the planet are in scramble mode, rerouting ships so long as the econs work, and it's likely never been more challenging to predict what lies ahead.
To that end, we focus on the here and now.