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First up, let's take a look at BAM's update weeks one and two forecast, which can be seen in the slide just below this text block. As you can see, things warm up for most of the country this week, except for folks out east...but the cold wil be giving way to an impressive high pressure regime for the eastern two-thirds of the country. By the time we get to week two, the colder anomalies are restricted to the western areas of the country, or a flip of what we have seen for much of the winter.
Next, here is BAM's updated March and April outlooks. The below-normal cold forecast for March is for the northern tier of the country, clipping Northern California and the PNW, but also the areas in the Northeast that have been the coldest for the longest periods of time this winter could get back in on the action. The May and June outlooks are shown below the March and April outlooks. The back half of the video linked below discusses potential spring conditions, moving out of La Nina, to neutral, and into El Nino by late spring or summer. This will have ramifications for next winter. The strength of the El Nino will be a big factor, as stronger El Nino's tend to mute the ability to get really cold in North America.
However, weaker El Nino's, or Modoki (same but different, in Japanese) can lead to some good winter outcomes for home heating. But it's far too early to have an idea just yet. Modoki El Nino winters have been 2004–2005, 2009–2010, and 2014–2015. Other recognized, often subtler, Modoki-like winters include 1986–1987, 1991–1992, and 2002–2003.
