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WTI crude is pulling back this morning after a dramatic week, trading near $101 per barrel — down roughly 3.8% from Thursday — after briefly touching a four-year high above $111 amid reports that President Trump would be briefed on expanded military strike options in Iran.
The underlying story hasn't changed. U.S. and Iranian blockades have effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a major share of global oil flows and triggering what the IEA has called an unprecedented supply shock. Today's modest pullback came after Pakistani officials confirmed that Iran had delivered an updated peace proposal to the U.S. government — thin relief, but enough to take some risk premium off the table heading into the weekend.
U.S. commercial crude stocks dropped 6.2 million barrels in the week ending April 24, falling to 459.5 million barrels, while crude exports surged to a record 6.44 million barrels per day — a remarkable reversal that has the U.S. functioning as a net crude exporter for the first time since World War II. The U.S. has now committed to lending 92.5 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, part of a broader 172-million-barrel coordinated release with over 30 IEA member nations, but the SPR move is a pressure valve, not a solution. Goldman Sachs is forecasting Brent to average above $100 per barrel in 2026, and the EIA projects a peak near $115 in Q2 if the Hormuz closure persists
Propane values remain elevated beyond what their supply and demand fundamentals would typically lead us to were it not for the war in Iran and elevated crude oil values. We have record amounts of propane on hand for this time of year, but flat price is getting closer to $.9000/cpg TET and nearly $.8000/cpg Conway. While the following is an educated guess, it would seem there may be a roughly $.3000/cpg war premium baked into propane values.
The war in Iran began on February 28th, and Conway propane averaged $.6000/cpg on February 27th, a Friday, while TET was just north of $.6600/cpg. However, earlier in that week, Conway propane averaged $.5700 (and deals were done for less than that) with TET trading below $.6000/cpg on 2/12.
If the war gets resolved, oil prices will likely drop, but propane prices could drop farther and faster.
